Tag: data-leakage
All the articles with the tag "data-leakage".
Predicting Chess Outcomes: A Disciplined ML Walkthrough
Updated:Predicting who wins a Lichess blitz game from its opening, rebuilt end to end on 100,000 games. Against a rating curve refitted to the data, the opening adds nothing at move 3 and a Brier gain of about 0.002 at move 10, on all seven splits tried; a Stockfish evaluation makes it 0.0084. The method is the point: an audited dataset, a leakage contract enforced by tests, a baseline worth beating, and diagnostics before features.